I have the same issue, seems to be caused by the installer not following the 301 Moved Permanently HTTP redirect.

Here is the HTTP conversation as captured from Wireshark.

GET /projects/mingw-w64/files/Toolchains%20targetting%20Win64/Personal%20Builds/mingw-builds/8.1.0/threads-posix/seh/x86_64-8.1.0-release-posix-seh-rt_v6-rev0.7z HTTP/1.0
User-Agent: Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 5.0; Windows 98) 
Accept: */*
Host: sourceforge.net

HTTP/1.1 301 Moved Permanently
Date: Sat, 28 May 2022 21:01:20 GMT
Content-Type: text/html
Connection: close
Location: https://sourceforge.net/projects/mingw-w64/files/Toolchains%20targetting%20Win64/Personal%20Builds/mingw-builds/8.1.0/threads-posix/seh/x86_64-8.1.0-release-posix-seh-rt_v6-rev0.7z
CF-Cache-Status: DYNAMIC
Server: cloudflare
CF-RAY: 7129ecc7a8c598f0-ARN
alt-svc: h3=":443"; ma=86400, h3-29=":443"; ma=86400

<html>
<head><title>301 Moved Permanently</title></head>
<body>
<center><h1>301 Moved Permanently</h1></center>
<hr><center>nginx</center>
<script defer src="https://static.cloudflareinsights.com/beacon.min.js/v652eace1692a40cfa3763df669d7439c1639079717194" integrity="sha512-Gi7xpJR8tSkrpF7aordPZQlW2DLtzUlZcumS8dMQjwDHEnw9I7ZLyiOj/6tZStRBGtGgN6ceN6cMH8z7etPGlw==" data-cf-beacon='{"rayId":"7129ecc7a8c598f0","token":"05ab2f27910c4db284f4fcdcd6948338","version":"2021.12.0","si":100}' crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
</body>
</html>

SourceForge MinGW64-install.exe Broken #12

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